Does
President Obama’s newly packed social calendar mean the fever of
partisan bickering in Washington is breaking? That’s the question today
after President Obama sat down for dinner with a dozen Republican
senators last night and even
picked up the tab himself. But don’t hold your breath.
Yes, Obama is engaging in a charm offensive,
lunching with House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan. Next Thursday, he’ll join the entire
GOP Senate caucus at their weekly luncheon.
But
will this gastronomical diplomacy actually lead to a deal to turn off
sequestration, or maybe even the elusive “grand bargain” that Obama has
been lusting after for almost two years?
Sen. Lindsey Graham, who
attended last night’s dinner and chose the other 11 senators on the
guest list, thinks it’s possible. “What I see from the president is
probably the most encouraging engagement on a big issue since the early
days of his presidency,” Graham told reporters. “He wants to do the big
deal.”
“The big deal” that Obama wants would be some version of
the “grand bargain” that Obama and House Speaker John Boehner almost
struck in the summer of 2011: some tax increases, some closing of tax
loopholes and lowering of tax rates, along with huge cuts to spending,
especially on social safety net programs.
The
current White House plan,
which includes switching the way inflation is calculated in Social
Security to shave costs and reduce benefits (they euphemistically call
it the “superlative CPI”) is very similar to the one Boehner proposed
last autumn. It certainly entails surrendering on something many
Democrats (and Americans) vehemently oppose. So, theoretically,
Republicans might be interested, right?
Well, it turns out Graham
may be in the minority, in thinking some wining and dining from the
White House will actually accomplish much. Others suggest Obama’s
outreach is essentially for show, to quiet the criticism of Washington
insiders that the president is aloof and not sufficiently bipartisan.
“Smells
to me like he is just trying to ‘check the box’ of a personal
presidential push after the whole Jedi-mind-meld thing at the presser,”
one Senate Democratic aide remarked, noting that there is a growing
caucus of scribes and pundits, like National Journal editor Ron
Fournier, preoccupied with questioning Obama’s commitment to the gauzy
ideal of bipartisan leadership. “He’s not gonna [make a deal] without
revenues and the GOP isn’t going to do it with them, so no matter how
many times they hit Plume for the tasting menu, I don’t really see it
happening, at least in the short term.”
Another agreed with TPM’s Brian Beutler’s
hunch
that the charm offensive may be about placating Beltway opinion makers.
“Seems more like kabuki theater aimed to appease DC elites. Do you
really think folks like Ron Johnson are going to go for $600 billion in
new revenue? I don’t think so,” the aide said.
“We don’t think
that there is a significant deal worth doing — one that creates jobs and
protects Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid — that today’s
Republican Party would agree to,” said Jeff Hauser of the AFL-CIO, a key
ally of the White House.
But could this time be different? The New Republic’s Noam Scheiber
laid out the best case for that alternative scenario this morning:
By reaching out to Republican senators who are sympathetic to the deal, Obama just may succeed at splitting some of them off from their leadership,
giving him the 60 votes he needs to pass it in the Senate. [Minority
Leader Mitch] McConnell can then curse his colleagues’ treachery in
public while privately cheering the outcome. In fact, my guess is that
once Obama has the magic 60 votes, he will get several more, since many
senators will want to claim a share of the credit.
Even
if that does work, Scheiber assumes Obama will needs only a few Senate
Republicans on top of most of all of the chamber’s 53 Democrats. But
that may be a tall order, considering how hostile liberal Democrats are
to entitlement cuts.
“‘Chained CPI’ is just a fancy way to say
‘cut benefits for seniors, the permanently disabled, and orphans,’” Sen.
Elizabeth Warren told Salon. “Our Social Security system is critical to
protecting middle-class families, and we cannot allow it to be
dismantled inch by inch.”
And even if the president could get
liberal Democrats on board, he’d also have to worry about congressional
Republicans. “Even if you believe dinner can change these politicians’
stated policy goals and pick up a couple Republican Senate votes for a
grand bargain, you still have the problem in the House,” a House
Democratic aide noted. “The majority of their caucus is ready to throw
Boehner out if he brings up anything else that includes any revenue,
plus you’re going to lose some Senate Democrats and most House Democrats
if you bring something up that cuts Medicare, Medicaid, and Social
Security benefits.”
The crux, at least when it comes to the
Democratic side, will be a White House-endorsed plan to implement the
so-called chained CPI, which changes the way inflation is calculated for
Social Security Cost of Living Adjustments. While chained CPI has been
called by some
the least bad way to cut entitlements, most
liberals absolutely hate it (although some groups, like the Center for American Progress, have endorsed it). Liberal critics point out there are plenty of
other ways to strengthen the retirement program without cutting benefits, and
over 100 House Democrats — the majority of the caucus — have already signed onto a letter saying they won’t support the CPI change.
“Strengthening
Social Security should be handled as a stand-alone question. Making it
part of a deficit reduction deal would not be a ‘grand bargain,’ it
would be a bad bargain,” Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown told Salon. He
remains “strongly opposed” to chained-CPI, a spokesperson confirmed.
Scheiber
only gives this a passing mention in a footnote, saying, “I suspect the
reaction on the left and from the public will be muted given the
support of Obama and Senate Democrats.” That’s certainly possible, and
House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi
has said
she could get chained CPI through her caucus, but Democrats have not
shown any signs of backing down yet. If anything, they’ve ratcheted up
the pressure, and Pelosi even
recanted a bit on her support for the plan.
And
chained CPI, despite Democrats’ opposition, is the most likely avenue
for entitlement reform, as the White House has already taken raising the
Medicare
retirement age off the table.
Meanwhile,
across the aisle, Republicans are still bitter after the fiscal cliff
deal raised billions in new revenue and seem completely closed to even
discussing the possibility of raising more. “This discussion about
revenue, in my view, is over,” Boehner said last Friday after a meeting
at the White House.
“It’s just for public relations,” another
Democratic Hill aide said of the dinner. “The junior Republican senators
get to have their faces splashed on TV, Obama gets to look like he’s
being bipartisan and trying and reaching out to Congress, but when in
the history of everdom have these breakout groups ever actually produced
real legislation that’s become public law?”
Alex Seitz-Wald is Salon's political reporter. Email him at aseitz-wald@salon.com, and follow him on Twitter
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